Polar Bare: The Humanitarian Community's Brave New World

Submitted by Mehmet Burk on Fri, 09/21/2012 - 5:37am

"Amazing," "astonishing" and "extraordinary" are three words to explain this summer's ice melt in the arctic circle. According to analysis by Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground, almost half of the Arctic ice cap disappeared this summer, an occurrence which may have last occurred 1,450 years ago, 4,000 years ago, or between 6,000-8,000 years ago. Prior to that, Masters indicates that the last time the Arctic was this ice free was 120,000 years ago during the last inter glacial period (when seas were also 4-6 meters higher).

For the humanitarian community, the reality of an ice-depleted Arctic has significant implications. Not just for organizations operating at the highest latitudes of the planet, but for those operating in the "southern" countries as well. The short term implications of an ice free Arctic may have already manifested in some surprising locations – North Africa, the Middle East, the Balkans, the Indian Subcontinent and even Latin America.

"Teleconnecting" the dots

The bridge between the melting Arctic and some recent humanitarian situations in Eurasia and North America may have to do with two consequences that melting ice entails.

To help understand this bridge, it's useful to think of the concept of a "teleconnection" – defined as simply "A causal connection or correlation between meteorological or other environmental phenomena that occur a long distance apart."

In a recent analysis in the journal Nature, Princeton economist Solomon Hsiang examined the role that El Nino played in conflicts in ENSO-vulnerable, or "teleconnected" nations. When El Nino was in full force, armed conflict spiked noticeably – the risk of conflict doubled from 3 to 6 percent.

Two teleconnective patterns also seem to be tied into Arctic ice melt, although the research is in the early stages. First, melted sea ice tends to result in a weaker and more sporadic jet stream at the mid-latitudes. Without a robust jet stream to clear out weather patterns,
"blocking" and "persistent" weather patterns can set in. Droughts can linger for greater periods of time, heat waves can simmer and cold snaps can be locked into place. As described below, the massive U.S. drought of 2012 and the deadly 2010 Russian heat wave are two potential examples of this.

Second, melted Arctic ice may be contributing to more extreme incarnations of a negative phase of the "Arctic Oscillation," a cousin of El Nino and La Nina in the teleconnection family. During a strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, the polar Arctic essentially "vomits" frigidly cold air into the mid latitudes during winter. This possibility is an aspect that requires more research, but if true, it is a compelling one, because it allows for us to teleconnect the melting sea ice to recent humanitarian crises related to a strongly negative arctic oscillation in Eurasia and North America.

If research is able to establish that blocking and strong negative Arctic Oscillations can be definitively linked to sea ice loss, recent history allows us to illuminate a new family of teleconnected nations and humanitarian crises.

Recent Humanitarian Crises Possibly "Teleconnected" to Sea Ice Loss

U.S. Drought and Crop Loss (2012) – with 2012 being the hottest year on record in the U.S., the accompanying drought has ravaged the agricultural sector and raised global food prices. The drought has been tied into Arctic-influenced blocking patterns.
Russian Heat Wave (2010) – with over 50,000 fatalities and raging forest fires, the extreme Russian heat wave has also been linked to a blocking pattern, possibly of Arctic melt-influenced origin.
Pakistan Floods (2010) – the epic flooding in Pakistan that affected 20 million people was also correlated to the same blocking pattern that set up over Russia in 2010, according to NASA.
Cold Wave of 2012 – a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation brought frigid conditions to Europe for much of last winter, paralyzed Turkey's Lake Van earthquake impact zone, and had substantial humanitarian impacts (and operations) from Kosovo to Algeria to Tunisia.
Cold Wave of 2011 – a negative Arctic Oscillation brought frigid temperatures as far south as Mexico, bringing wind chills as far as minus 15 degrees and forcing some residents to shelters. Over 2,600 people sought shelter from the cold as far south as Guatemala.
Cold Wave of 2010 – a negative Arctic Oscillation was so prominent in North America that some parts of the Florida were colder than Antarctica. Cold waves gripped South Asia, Central Asia, and parts of Latin America. Severe crop losses due to the cold were even reported in Yemen.

Conclusion

If scientific evidence can pin down a solid connection between persistence and blocking in mid-latitudes, as well as violent incarnations of negative Arctic Oscillations to melting sea ice, the connection can be drawn to a disturbing panoply of recent humanitarian situations throughout Eurasia and North America. It is possible that the humanitarian community has already been operating in a Brave New World of melted sea ice, teleconnected to humanitarian crises around the Northern Hemisphere.

[via BBC, Climate Central, Weather Underground, Nature, Wired.com, Huffington Post, Reuters, Christian Science Monitor, Extinction Protocol, Relief Analysis Wire, ReliefWeb, Almanac.com Yemen Post.net]

Mehmet Burk is a practicioner in the humanitarian field and senior writer at Melting Glacier Analytics' Relief Analysis Wire. You can find this article cross-posted on his site as well as recent articles on Haiti's recovery from Hurricane Isaac and humanitarian operations in the Sahel and Middle East.

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Polar Bare: The Humanitarian Community's Brave New World