African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent—but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.

Africa’s borders are largely accepted; it is only a distinct few cases (including Sudan) in which
they could be reconsidered.

While there are many secession movements in Africa, most are weak and few stand a real
chance of success, or have the international support they would need to advance their
cause. This minimizes the likelihood of a wave of follow-on secessions if Southern Sudan
chooses to secede.

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Date Published:
December 27, 2010
Attributed Authors:
Jon Temin
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United States Institute of Peace

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