Not long before the UN-run popular consultation in East Timor in 1999, an Indonesian general told me that if the East Timorese voted for independence, Indonesia would surely break apart. He cited the centrifugal forces at work that would pull the diverse country to pieces. In effect, East Timor’s departure would set the dominos in motion.
One hears similar sentiments in Khartoum ahead of a planned January 9, 2011, independence referendum in southern Sudan. Such views, if held by senior members of the government, could present an obstacle to the completion of essential agreements between the government and the South to enable the referendum and allow for the peaceful division of resources and assets if the South votes for independence. They could also lead to violence if northern leaders decide they are unwilling to give up the resource-rich South no matter the results of the referendum.
While no two situations are the same, and one makes comparisons between countries at one’s risk, it is possible that Indonesia has useful lessons to teach the Sudanese government. Indeed, Indonesia could play an important role by assisting the Sudanese, especially those in the government, through the difficulties of the upcoming period.
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